电气设备行业专题研究：多晶硅行业：价格向上修复，政策、行业整合和期货上市催化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in polysilicon prices, with supply and demand expected to continue marginal recovery. The industry price hit a low in June 2024 and began to rebound in August due to production cuts by leading companies, stabilizing supply and demand. Currently, the price of dense material is around 40,000 yuan, with most companies operating at cash flow losses and low capacity utilization. Planned and new capacity expansions have largely been paused. The report anticipates that prices will continue to trend upwards, potentially exceeding the cost lines of leading companies [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status: Marginal Recovery in Supply and Demand, Price Rebound - In 2024, the total polysilicon capacity is projected to be 3.5 million tons, with demand at 1.9 million tons. The nominal capacity is significantly oversupplied, making actual profitability and production changes more meaningful under current price levels. As of August 2024, domestic capacity reached 2.69 million tons, with global capacity expected to reach 3.5 million tons by the end of 2024 [11][12]. 2. Catalysts: Futures Listing, Industry Consolidation, and Low-Carbon Policies - Short-term Catalysts: The upcoming futures listing and reduction in electricity subsidies are expected to support price recovery. Current industry inventory is around 300,000 tons, and the futures market could help digest this inventory and boost prices [25][28]. - Mid-term Catalysts: Over 1.5 million tons of planned capacity have been delayed or terminated, indicating a saturated market. The acquisition of Runyang by Tongwei, which has a polysilicon capacity of 130,000 tons, marks the beginning of industry consolidation [34][36]. - Long-term Catalysts: The acceleration of carbon footprint policy reforms will constrain capacity expansion. By 2025, carbon footprint management standards are expected to be introduced for the power, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicle sectors [39][40]. 3. Elasticity Assessment: Focus on Low-Cost, High-Elasticity Companies - Companies with low cash costs and high earnings elasticity are recommended for investment. For instance, GCL-Poly has a cash cost of approximately 30,000 yuan with a capacity of 480,000 tons, while Tongwei has a cash cost of about 40,000 yuan and a capacity of 850,000 tons. Other notable companies include Daqo New Energy and TBEA, both with low coal power costs and capacities exceeding 300,000 tons [2][42].