中国制造业PMI季刊（第58期）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector, projecting a gradual rise in the PMI above 50.0 in 4Q24, suggesting a recovery in economic activity [3][11]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector is experiencing easing downward pressure, with large enterprises expanding while small and medium enterprises show signs of stabilization [5][16]. - Manufacturing output has resumed expansion, with the output index rising to 51.2 in September, indicating recovery [17]. - Overall market demand is stabilizing, as evidenced by the new orders index rebounding to 49.9 in September [21]. - Input prices are declining, leading manufacturers to lower ex-factory prices, with the ex-factory prices index at 44.0 in September [28]. - Employment in the manufacturing sector has slightly decreased, but stabilization is expected in 4Q24 due to steady growth in the export sector [31][32]. Summary by Sections Policy Outlook - China has implemented a series of monetary stimulus measures to support economic growth, with further policy details expected soon [2][10]. 4Q24 Forecasts - Real GDP growth is projected to increase to 5.0% year-on-year, with industrial production growth expected at 5.0%-5.5% [3][11]. - Exports are anticipated to register a mid-single-digit year-on-year rise, supported by improving external demand [22]. Manufacturing Sector Performance - The PMI for large enterprises remained above 50, indicating continued expansion, while small and medium enterprises are showing signs of stabilization [15][16]. - The output index has returned to expansionary territory, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing production [17]. Market Demand - The new orders index has improved, indicating that overall market demand is stabilizing [21]. - New export orders have shown a persistent decline, but a recovery in external demand is expected to support exports [22]. Price Trends - The input prices index indicates a decline in production input costs, attributed to falling global commodity prices [25]. - Manufacturers have lowered ex-factory prices, with the ex-factory prices index remaining in contractionary territory [28]. Employment Trends - The employment index has fluctuated around 48.0, indicating a slight decrease in manufacturing employment [31]. - Stabilization in the employment situation is anticipated in 4Q24 due to growth in the export sector [32].