9月及三季度财政数据点评：四季度财政支出力度有望进一步加大

Fiscal Revenue Insights - In September, total public fiscal revenue reached CNY 15,283.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, improving by 5.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Tax revenue for September was CNY 10,656.0 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.0%, but the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Non-tax revenue significantly improved, totaling CNY 4,627.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 25.2%, an increase of 16.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in September amounted to CNY 27,881.0 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, a notable improvement of 11.9 percentage points[7] - Local public fiscal expenditure reached CNY 23,579.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, improving by 14.5 percentage points from the previous month[7] - The share of public fiscal expenditure directed towards infrastructure reached 21.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a focus on "stabilizing growth" initiatives[8] Government Fund Budget Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, total government fund budget revenue was CNY 30,861.0 billion, down 20.2% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.9 percentage points[11] - September saw government fund expenditure of CNY 12,277.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, significantly improving by 48.2 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Local government fund expenditure was CNY 11,875.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 35.7%, marking a substantial increase of 50.2 percentage points from the previous month[15] Economic Outlook - The overall fiscal expenditure for the first nine months of 2024 reached CNY 262,227.0 billion, accounting for 64.6% of the annual fiscal budget target, indicating a relatively low level historically[17] - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policies and promote high-quality economic development in the fourth quarter, with expectations for increased fiscal spending[17]