食品饮料行业周报：板块季报需求承压，盈利受益成本改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, with an investment rating of "Cautious" for the short term and "Positive" for the medium to long term [2][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current growth rate is not the most critical factor; rather, the strategic determination and execution capabilities of companies are more important. It suggests that leading companies in the industry possess cost-effectiveness and long-term investment value [7][8]. - The report indicates that the industry is currently experiencing a shift in expectations, with a potential recovery in the fundamental drivers expected after the Spring Festival in 2025, contingent on effective policy measures improving income levels and expectations [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.19% increase last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.02 percentage points. The white liquor segment rose by 1.86% [7][21]. - The report notes that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.56 percentage points during the specified period, with various sub-sectors showing mixed results [21]. 2. Key Company Performances - Kweichow Moutai reported a total revenue of 39.671 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%, with a net profit of 19.132 billion yuan, up 13.23% [8][9]. - Jinhuijiu achieved a revenue of 574 million yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a 15.77% year-on-year growth, with a net profit increase of 108.84% [8][9]. - The report highlights that while major food companies generally underperformed in revenue expectations for Q3, profits exceeded expectations due to declining costs [8][9]. 3. Recommendations - The report recommends key stocks in the liquor sector, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as major food companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer [7][8]. - It suggests focusing on companies with growth potential and those positioned at the bottom of the market and operational spectrum [7][8]. 4. Market Trends - The report notes that the average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces is 3.13 yuan/kg, down 16.1% year-on-year, while the price of pork is 30.07 yuan/kg, up 15.25% year-on-year [11][16]. - The dynamic PE for the food and beverage sector is currently at 20.16x, with a premium rate of 41%, indicating a slight increase from the previous period [11][12].