洽洽食品：利润超预期，瓜子稳健增长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 34.20, compared to the last closing price of 31.11 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.758 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 626 million yuan, up 23.79% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 558 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 31.44% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.72%, with a net profit of 289 million yuan, up 21.4% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 275 million yuan, showing a growth of 22.24% [1]. - The company anticipates double-digit growth in its core product, sunflower seeds, while the nut segment has shown slower performance. The company has increased promotional efforts for certain mainstream products, leading to strong sales performance [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 33.1%, a significant increase of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a double-digit decline in raw material costs for sunflower seeds [1]. - The company has introduced a new stock incentive plan aimed at achieving a revenue target of 10 billion yuan over the next three years, with specific growth rate targets set for revenue and net profit [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 7.641 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.28%. The net profit is expected to be 966 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.33% [2]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is estimated at 1.91 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.33 [2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 10.758 billion yuan by 2024E, with total liabilities of 4.237 billion yuan [4].