美国大选深度观察：大选不确定性较高或利好避险类资产

Election Overview - Harris slightly leads Trump in national polls by 0.2 percentage points, but the competition remains very close in key swing states[11] - The election could be highly competitive, with both candidates having viable paths to victory based on swing state outcomes[25] Economic Policies - Harris aims to create an "opportunity economy" by reducing costs for food, housing, healthcare, and childcare, proposing measures like building 3 million new homes and providing up to $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers[31] - Trump's policies focus on domestic tax cuts, increasing tariffs, and supporting traditional energy, with a significant risk of raising tariffs on Chinese imports, although a blanket 60% tariff is unlikely[6] Swing State Dynamics - Approximately 30,000 marginal voters in swing states could determine the election outcome, with a historical voting margin of only 27,800 votes in key states during previous elections[20] - Key swing states include Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) and Michigan (15 electoral votes), which are critical for both candidates' paths to victory[25] Market Implications - The uncertainty surrounding the election may benefit safe-haven assets, with historical data indicating that election years often see higher fiscal spending compared to non-election years[6] - Gold has historically shown significant returns during election years, aligning with increased market uncertainty[6]