美国其他互联网：海通国际海外观察–HLT3Q24业绩快览：收入低于预期，利润超预期；调低全年RevPAR预测上限

Core Insights - The report indicates that the company's revenue for Q3 2024 was $2.867 billion, representing a 7% year-over-year increase, but it fell 1% short of expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $904 million, up 8% year-over-year, exceeding consensus by 2% [1][6][2] - The global average RevPAR was $121.4, a 1.4% year-over-year increase, which was 2% below expectations and lower than the previous guidance of 2-3% year-over-year. The average ADR was $161.2, and the average occupancy rate was 75.3% [1][6][2] - The number of hotels reached a record high of 8,301, with a 12% year-over-year increase, and 531 new hotels opened in the quarter, resulting in a total of 1.25 million rooms, marking a historical net growth rate of 7.8% [1][6][2] - The full-year RevPAR guidance has been revised down to an expected increase of 2% to 2.5% year-over-year, compared to the previous guidance of 2% to 3% year-over-year, while the adjusted EBITDA guidance remains unchanged at $3.375 to $3.495 billion [1][6][2] - The company is optimistic about FY25 performance in China due to a normalizing base and favorable government stimulus policies, with many existing properties suitable for the development of limited service brands [1][6][2] - Shareholder returns have been robust, with $764 million in share repurchases and dividends in Q3, totaling $2.433 billion year-to-date, resulting in a shareholder return ratio of 4.8% based on the latest closing price [1][6][2] - The company's latest closing price was $235.2, corresponding to a market capitalization of $57.3 billion, with an EV/EBITDA of 19.9x for 2024 and 18.5x for 2025 based on Bloomberg consensus [1][6][2] Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for Q3 was $2.867 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year, but 1% below expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $904 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 2% [2][3] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.5%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point year-over-year increase and beating consensus by 1 percentage point [2][3] - Adjusted net profit was $477 million, a 9% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations by 5% [2][3] Regional Performance - The global average RevPAR was $121.4, a 1.4% year-over-year increase, but 2% below expectations. By region, RevPAR growth was +1% in the US, +4.4% in the Americas (excluding the US), +7.3% in Europe, +3.3% in the Middle East and Africa, and -0.8% in Asia Pacific [1][6][2] - China's RevPAR decreased by 9% year-over-year in Q3 due to a high base from the previous year, typhoon impacts, and restrictions on international inbound tourism [1][6][2] Future Guidance - For Q4 2024, the global comparable average RevPAR is expected to increase by 1.0-2.0% year-over-year, with net profit projected between $371 million and $395 million [3][4] - The full-year 2024 guidance for RevPAR is revised to a 2.0-2.5% year-over-year increase, with net growth expected at 7.0-7.5% [3][4] - For FY25, the company anticipates a net growth of 6-7%, with expectations for RevPAR to remain stable in the US and improve in the Asia Pacific region due to stimulus measures in China [4][3]