快递行业9月数据解读：件量增速环比微降，淡旺季切换时点价格企稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the express delivery industry [4]. Core Insights - In September, the national express delivery business volume reached 14.97 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.7%, with a slight month-on-month decline in growth rate [2][6]. - The industry is transitioning from the off-peak season to the peak season, with prices stabilizing due to the upcoming peak season and anti-competitive policy signals [2][25]. - Major express companies are showing stable price recovery, with key grain-producing areas like Guangdong and Zhejiang initiating price increases [2][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Volume: Slight Decline in Growth Rate - The express delivery business volume in September was 14.97 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 18.7% and a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points [6][13]. - Major express companies such as SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express reported business volumes of 1.141 billion, 2.312 billion, 2.036 billion, and 1.998 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.64%, 28.03%, 21.99%, and 21.93% [17]. 2. Single Ticket Price: Stabilization at the Transition Point - The average single ticket price in September was 7.94 yuan, remaining flat compared to August, but down 12.52% year-on-year [21][28]. - Major express companies showed a month-on-month price increase, with SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express recording prices of 16.00, 2.18, 2.01, and 2.02 yuan respectively, with month-on-month changes of +0.33, +0.01, +0.02, and +0.02 yuan [21][28]. 3. Industry Landscape: Stability in Market Share of Major Express Companies - The brand concentration index CR8 remained stable at 85.2 in September, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.1 [34][36]. - The market shares of major express companies were 7.62% for SF Express, 15.44% for YTO Express, 13.60% for Yunda Express, and 13.35% for Shentong Express [34][36]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Companies with High Performance Elasticity in Peak Season - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong market positions and profitability, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express, which are expected to show performance elasticity in the upcoming peak season [38].