2024年9月轻工出口月报：出口大盘回落，床垫两轮车景气度仍存

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The light industry exports performed better than expected in the first half of 2024, but growth slowed in the second half, with September furniture and parts exports down by 9.7% year-on-year [2][3]. - Despite external demand slowing, cross-border e-commerce is expected to continue supporting overseas exports in the second half of the year [2]. Summary by Sections Export Performance - In September 2024, the furniture and parts export value was $4.66 billion, with a two-year CAGR of -9.7% [8][10]. - The overall furniture export value for January to September 2024 showed a two-year CAGR of +7.7% [8]. Segment Analysis - The performance of light industry subcategories varied, with mattress exports (spring and latex) growing by 14.3% and 1.9% respectively, while sofa exports declined [2][4]. - Electric motorcycles and golf carts saw significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 25.9% and 37.4% respectively [2][4]. Regional Insights - Exports from all regions except Africa maintained growth, although the growth rate slowed [12]. - North America saw a recovery in spring mattress exports, while Africa experienced a significant decline in sanitary ceramics, continuing a trend of over 30% decrease [12]. Shipping Costs and Currency Fluctuations - Shipping costs have been on a downward trend, with significant reductions in rates for routes to the East Coast, Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Red Sea [20][23]. - The RMB briefly appreciated, but uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts in the US led to a depreciation of the RMB post-October [24][26].