交运行业一周天地汇：三季报消费板块持仓上行，LNG新造船价企稳，苏美达Q3超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, with specific recommendations for various sectors within the industry, including shipping, express delivery, and aviation [6][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in fund holdings in the transportation sector, particularly in consumer-related stocks such as airlines and express delivery services, while holdings in shipping and high-dividend stocks have decreased [6][8]. - LNG newbuilding prices have stabilized, presenting an opportunity to capitalize on the shipbuilding sector's low sentiment [6][9]. - The report suggests that the downward revision of global shipping sector earnings expectations is nearing its end, indicating potential bottoming opportunities for investment [9]. - The express delivery sector is entering a peak season, with significant year-on-year growth in package collection and delivery volumes [13]. - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in international routes, with several airlines receiving approvals for new routes [14]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q3 2024, fund holdings in the transportation sector increased, with express delivery and raw material supply chain services seeing significant growth, accounting for 20% and 3% of total holdings, respectively [6][8]. - Major stocks with over 1 billion yuan in market value and growth rates exceeding 10% include: - 吉祥航空 (33 billion yuan, +33%) - 顺丰控股 (29 billion yuan, +18%) - 圆通速递 (26 billion yuan, +55%) - 广深铁路 (17 billion yuan, +14%) - 京沪高铁 (15 billion yuan, +17%) [6][8]. Shipping Sector Insights - LNG newbuilding prices recorded at 189.64 points, showing a slight decline of 0.04, but are expected to recover after short-term fluctuations [6][8]. - The report recommends stocks such as 中国船舶, 中国重工, and 苏美达 for potential growth in the shipbuilding sector [6][9]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector has seen a surge in activity, with a 48.7% year-on-year increase in package collection during the peak season [13]. - Recommendations include 申通快递 for high growth and 圆通速递 for stable performance [13]. Aviation Sector - The report emphasizes the recovery of the aviation sector, with new international routes approved for several airlines, including 中国国航 and 吉祥航空 [14]. - The focus is on a dual-driven investment strategy of "international + supply" for 2024 [14]. Rail and Road Transportation - Recommendations include 皖通高速, 大秦铁路, and 招商公路, with data showing a 0.55% increase in national railway cargo transport [15]. - The report highlights the growth of 中欧班列, with a 13% increase in the number of trains operated [15].