计算机行业24Q3持仓及估值分析:持仓历史低位,加仓顺周期标的
2024-10-27 12:48

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Overweight" [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The computer industry public fund allocation ratio is at 2.4% for Q3 2024, which is at the 7% percentile over the past 10 years, indicating a historical low [3][4]. - The top ten holdings in the computer industry remain stable, with notable stocks including Nasda, Hikvision, and Desay SV [5][6]. - There has been an increase in holdings in cyclical sectors such as Xinchuang, SaaS, industrial software, and intelligent driving, driven by recent government policies aimed at boosting fiscal spending [5][6]. - The valuation of the computer industry is currently below historical median levels, with a PE (TTM) of 60.1x, PS (TTM) of 2.96x, and PCF (TTM) of 63.1x, indicating potential for future growth as the macroeconomic environment improves [8][9]. Summary by Sections Fund Allocation - The computer industry public fund allocation decreased by 0.1 percentage points from Q2 2024, ranking 13th among 30 primary industries [3][4]. - The top ten stocks saw five increase in holdings and five decrease in holdings during Q3 2024 [5]. Stock Performance - The top ten holdings include Nasda (47.4 billion), Hikvision (40.4 billion), and Desay SV (36.8 billion), with significant changes in holdings noted [5][6]. - New entrants to the top ten include Tonghuashun and Guanglian Da, while Zhongke Shuguang and Baoxin Software exited [5]. Valuation Analysis - The current PE (TTM) of 60.1x is at the 63.2% historical percentile, while PS (TTM) is at 2.96x, at the 19.7% historical level [8][9]. - The valuation levels have room for growth compared to peaks in 2020 (90x) and 2023 (70x) [8][9].