高盛：金蝶_ 2024 年 9 月 ARR 同比增长 23% 至 33 亿元人民币；IT 支出逐步复苏以支持美元留存率

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Kingdee (0268 HK) with a 12-month target price of HK$12 53, implying a 40 3$8 93 [6][11] Core Views - Kingdee's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew by 23% YoY to Rmb3 28bn by Sep 2024, with a net ARR addition of Rmb130m, accounting for 39% of the estimated 2H24 ARR net add [1] - The company's ARR is expected to reach Rmb3 48bn by end-2024, driven by a gradual recovery in IT spending, enhanced Constellation/Cosmic cloud platforms, and increased exposure to large-scale clients [1] - The Net Dollar Retention Rate (NDR) for large-scale clients (Cosmic/Constellation) remained strong at 97% in 3Q24, while mid-scale clients (Galaxy) and SME clients (Stellar/Jingdou) showed NDRs of 95% and 93%/88%, respectively [4] - Earnings estimates for 2025E-26E were revised up by 1%/1%, reflecting higher revenues supported by a gradual IT spending recovery and recent incentive policies [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - Kingdee's 2024E revenues are expected to reach Rmb6 632m, with a net loss revised down to Rmb31m from Rmb36m [6] - The 2025E-26E revenue growth is projected at 22%/26%, with gross margins improving to 68 9%/72 1% [6] - The valuation is based on a mix of two-stage DCF and 2025E P/S methods, with a target P/S multiple of 4 1x [6][9] - The 12-month target price implies a 6 2x/5 0x 2024E/2025E P/S, which is below the stock's historical average, indicating attractive valuation [6] Client and Market Trends - Kingdee has successfully penetrated new large-scale clients, including Denso China, Merchants Shekou, Liuzhou Steel Group, and CSPC Pharmaceutical, which supports future ARR growth [1] - The company's large-scale client NDR is expected to recover gradually, supported by incentive policies and new client order wins, although it may take time to reach 100%+ due to slow budgeting [4] Earnings Revisions - The 2024E net loss was revised from Rmb36m to Rmb31m, while 2025E-26E earnings were revised up by 1%/1% due to higher revenue expectations [4] - The 2025E-26E revenue estimates were increased to Rmb8 120m and Rmb10 216m, respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in IT spending [6]