高盛：美国股票观点_介绍我们对 2025 年标准普尔 500 指数的现金预测

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for S&P 500 cash spending, forecasting an acceleration from +8% in 2024 to +11% in 2025 [1][3][4]. Core Insights - Strong earnings growth is expected to drive cash spending, with S&P 500 cash spending increasing by 15% year/year in 1H 2024, led by the top 10 spenders which increased spending by 36% [1][4][7]. - The report anticipates a roughly even split between returning cash to shareholders and investing for growth, with buybacks expected to grow by 15% and dividends by 7% in 2025 [2][3][4]. - Capital expenditures (capex) are projected to grow by 8% and R&D by 9% in 2025, while cash M&A is expected to rebound by 20% [2][3][4]. Cash Spending Forecasts - S&P 500 cash spending is forecasted to reach $3,954 billion in 2025, with capital expenditures at$1,148 billion, share buybacks at $1,070 billion, dividends at$711 billion, R&D at $700 billion, and cash acquisitions at$325 billion [4][16]. - The growth rates for these categories are expected to be 8% for capex, 15% for buybacks, 7% for dividends, 9% for R&D, and 20% for cash M&A [2][4][16]. Earnings Growth and Its Impact - Earnings growth is identified as a key driver of cash spending, with a forecasted EPS growth of +11% in 2025, up from +8% in 2024 [7][8][28]. - The gap in earnings growth between mega-cap tech stocks and the median stock is expected to narrow, supporting broader cash spending across the S&P 500 [8][20]. Sector-Level Breakdown - The report provides a sector-level breakdown of cash spending, highlighting that Information Technology and Health Care are significant contributors to buybacks and R&D [16][30]. - For example, Information Technology is expected to account for 20% of total cash spending, with a notable share in buybacks and R&D [16][30]. M&A Activity - US M&A activity has rebounded by 22% year-to-date in 2024, with strategic acquirers announcing $473 billion in deals [40][41]. - However, the cash component of completed M&A has decreased from 82% to 62%, indicating a shift towards share-based transactions [40][41]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for S&P 500 cash spending is optimistic, driven by strong earnings growth and a balanced approach to returning cash to shareholders while investing in growth opportunities [1][2][3].