高盛：美国经济分析师_飓风的影响_即将发布的数据路线图

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under review. Core Insights - The report discusses the significant economic impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, estimating combined property damages around $90 billion, which represents approximately 0.3% of GDP, marking them as some of the most destructive storms since World War II [3][4]. - It highlights that nearly 10% of the U.S. population was affected by these hurricanes, indicating a broad societal impact [6]. - The report anticipates a temporary slowdown in economic growth indicators due to the hurricanes, with a projected drag of 40-50k on nonfarm payroll growth for October [13][16]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact of Hurricanes - The report estimates that the property damages from Hurricanes Helene and Milton could rank among the top 10 hurricanes in terms of economic impact since WWII [4]. - The societal breadth of the disasters is significant, with 6% of the U.S. population covered by federal disaster declarations related to these hurricanes [6]. Labor Market Effects - Initial jobless claims in hurricane-impacted states have increased by 14k, with expectations of a further rise of 5-10k due to Hurricane Milton [9][10]. - Historically, the peak in initial claims follows hurricanes by about two weeks, but this lag has decreased over time due to technological advancements [10][13]. GDP and Economic Activity - The report suggests a 0.3 percentage point hit to quarterly annualized Q4 GDP growth, followed by a similar boost in Q1 as rebuilding efforts commence [16]. - Historical data indicates that major natural disasters typically lead to a slowdown in GDP growth in the month of the disaster, with a rebound in subsequent months [18][17]. Inflation Considerations - The report notes that while natural disasters do not typically have a strong impact on national inflation rates, specific disruptions in automotive parts production could lead to upward pressure on car prices [22]. Future Data Releases - The report provides a roadmap for upcoming economic data releases, indicating that data for October will likely reflect the most acute impacts of the hurricanes [7][8].