Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month price target of US52 per ADR/H-share, based on 18x CY2025E P/E [1][8] Core Views - Miniso is expected to report 21% YoY growth in Group sales to RMB4.58bn in 3Q24, driven by strong overseas performance, particularly in distributor markets [1][3] - China sales are expected to grow by 8% YoY, slightly below management's earlier target, due to a weak consumption backdrop [1] - Overseas sales are projected to grow by 40% YoY, with DTC markets up 55% YoY and distributor markets accelerating to 28% YoY growth [1][4] - Top Toy brand is expected to grow by 51% YoY, driven by store expansion and favorable product mix [1][5] Sales Breakdown - Mainland China sales are forecasted at RMB2.49bn, growing 8% YoY, decelerating from 18% YoY in 2Q24 [4] - Overseas sales are expected to reach RMB1.8bn, with DTC markets contributing 55% YoY growth and distributor markets growing 28% YoY [4] - Top Toy brand sales are projected to reach RMB272mn, with a 33% GPM, reflecting a 4pp QoQ expansion due to a favorable product mix [5] Margins and Profitability - Group GPM is expected to expand by 4pp YoY, driven by a higher mix of overseas DTC and Top Toy margin improvement [1] - Adjusted OPM is forecasted to decline by 2pp YoY to 19%, due to near-term investments in US store expansion and 24H Super stores [1] - Adjusted net income is expected to grow by 9% YoY to RMB696mn, with a 15.2% adjusted NPM [5] Store Expansion - Miniso brand is expected to add 105 net stores in Mainland China in 3Q24, reaching 4,220 stores by the end of the quarter [3] - Overseas store openings are projected at 180 net stores in 3Q24, with a full-year target of 550-650 stores [3] - Top Toy brand is expected to reach 235 stores by 3Q24, with 40 net openings in the quarter and a full-year target of 112 stores [5] Catalysts and Outlook - Key catalysts for 4Q24 include the launch of Harry Potter IP and the upcoming holiday season, particularly in the US where store expansion is accelerating [1] - The report highlights potential tax credits for the US business in 2H24, given the turnaround from the previous year [1]
高盛：名创优品_ 3Q24 预览_ 海外市场表现稳健，分销商市场强劲反弹，但中国销售较弱；买入