高盛：全球科技_2024 年 PC TAM 2 同比预测 _ 2025 年预测；9-10 月 AI PC 新机型

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the global PC market, expecting a recovery in shipments after previous declines, with a modest downward revision of 2% for 2024E and 3% for 2025E [1][5]. Core Insights - The global PC shipment forecast has been revised to 265 million units for 2024E and 273 million units for 2025E, reflecting a 2% and 3% decrease from previous estimates [1][5]. - The report anticipates a year-on-year growth of 2% in 2024E and 3% in 2025E, driven by the PC replacement cycle, advancements in AI capabilities, and the end of the Windows 10 lifecycle [1][5]. - New AI PC models have been launched, featuring enhanced processing capabilities, which are expected to stimulate demand [5][12]. Summary by Sections Global PC Market Overview - The report updates global PC forecasts based on the latest data from major suppliers including HP, Dell, Apple, and others, indicating a recovery from the double-digit declines experienced in 2022-2023 [1][5]. - In 9M24, global PC shipments showed a 0% year-on-year change, with notebook shipments from Taiwanese ODMs totaling 94.9 million units, down 1% year-on-year [5][11]. AI PC Developments - Recent AI PC launches include models from Lenovo, Dell, and Samsung, featuring new processors with significantly higher AI computing power, ranging from 75 to 120 TOPS [5][10]. - Intel aims to ship 40 million AI PCs in 2024, representing a 15% market penetration, highlighting the growing importance of AI functionalities in driving PC sales [5][12]. Shipment Projections - The report projects global PC shipments to reach 265 million units in 2024E and 273 million units in 2025E, with a breakdown of desktop, notebook, and workstation shipments [1][12]. - The expected year-on-year growth rates for desktops and notebooks are 2% and 3% respectively, indicating a gradual recovery in the market [1][12].