高盛：石油追踪_仓位和生产商对冲在短暂但大幅上涨后下降

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry but provides insights into market conditions and trends that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - The Brent crude price has shown some recovery after a decline, influenced by the People's Bank of China's unexpected interest rate cut and easing concerns over Iranian oil supply disruptions [2][4]. - Oil net managed money positioning has decreased significantly, now standing at the low 2nd percentile, indicating reduced speculative interest in the market [4][27]. - The US Lower 48 crude production nowcast is at 11.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), which is 0.2 mb/d below expectations, reflecting a decline in the oil rig count and production flows from key regions [9][10]. - China's oil demand nowcast has increased to 17.0 mb/d, the highest level in six months, driven by recovering industrial production and retail sales [5][14]. - OECD Europe oil demand nowcast has also seen a slight increase, now at 13.7 mb/d, but remains below earlier expectations [14]. Supply Summary - Trackable net supply has tightened by 0.1 mb/d week-over-week, with increased demand estimates for China and Europe offsetting a rise in Canadian liquids production [8]. - The US Lower 48 crude production nowcast remains unchanged at 11.1 mb/d, while Canada liquids production has increased to 6.1 mb/d [9][10]. - Russia's total liquids production nowcast is stable at 11.1 mb/d, which is 0.3 mb/d above expectations [10]. Demand Summary - China's oil demand has increased by 0.1 mb/d, reaching 17.0 mb/d, as demand recovers from previous weather-related weaknesses [5][14]. - OECD Europe oil demand has increased by 0.1 mb/d month-over-month, now standing at 13.7 mb/d, but is still below earlier forecasts [14]. Inventory Summary - OECD total oil commercial stocks have decreased by 12 million barrels (mb) to 2,789 mb, which is 22 mb above the end-of-October balance forecast [15]. - Global total oil commercial visible stocks have decreased by 8 mb, now at 4,756 mb, reflecting larger landed product draws [17][18]. Price and Volatility Summary - The Brent 1M/36M timespread has widened to -9 percentage points (pp), indicating a significant gap from its fair value [20]. - Brent implied volatility has narrowed by 2 pp to 5 pp, suggesting a decrease in market uncertainty [23]. Positioning Summary - Oil net managed money has decreased by 39 mb, now at 226 mb, reflecting a significant drop in speculative positioning [27]. - The current percentile for net managed money positioning is at a low 2nd percentile, indicating reduced market confidence [26][27]. Geopolitical Risks - The report highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which could impact oil supply and pricing dynamics [24]. Trade Recommendations - The report continues to recommend a long position in distillate cracks, reflecting a structurally bullish view on refining [25].