高盛：中国_消费者数据2024Q3_消费增长放缓，消费者信心恶化

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Consumer spending in China has slowed, with household nominal consumption growth decreasing to 3.5% year-over-year in Q3 2024 from 5.0% in Q2 2024, primarily due to reduced spending on residence, household items, and medical services [2][3] - The labor market showed signs of weakness in Q3, with urban unemployment rates increasing notably in July and August before slightly decreasing in September [2][7] - Household disposable income per capita grew by 5.0% year-over-year in Q3, an improvement from 4.5% in Q2, although urban wage growth moderated to 2.6% year-over-year from 3.6% [2][10] - The household savings rate increased slightly in Q3, but consumer confidence continued to decline, with the NBS consumer confidence index falling further in recent months [2][14] Summary by Sections Household Spending - Household nominal consumption growth slowed to 3.5% year-over-year in Q3 2024 from 5.0% in Q2 2024, with a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth of only 0.7% compared to 5.8% in Q2 [2][3] - The decline in consumption was mainly attributed to weaker spending on residence, household items, and medical services [2] Labor Market - The labor market weakened in Q3, with employment sub-indexes under various PMIs declining [2][7] - Urban surveyed unemployment rates increased significantly in July and August before decreasing slightly in September [2][7] Income Trends - Household disposable income per capita grew by 5.0% year-over-year in Q3, up from 4.5% in Q2, with a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth of 5.9% [2][10] - Urban wage growth moderated to 2.6% year-over-year in Q3 from 3.6% in Q2, indicating a slowdown in wage increases [2][11] Savings and Consumer Confidence - The household savings rate edged up in Q3, but the cumulative stock of household excess savings decreased to RMB 2.9 trillion from RMB 3.0 trillion in Q2 [2][14] - Consumer confidence, as measured by the NBS consumer confidence index, fell further in recent months, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment [2][14]