高盛：中国券商与资产管理人__这次有何不同，以及中国人民银行掉期的影响

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on CICC-H, with a revised target price of HK$15.86, up from HK$15.71, reflecting an anticipated increase in earnings [1][18]. Core Insights - The brokerage industry is expected to see a gradual rise in average daily trading volume (ADTV) to Rmb 1.2 trillion by 2025, driven by policy support and increased ETF trading [1][2]. - The report projects a 1% increase in average revenue and an 8% increase in net profit for 2025, with a cautious approach to applying top-of-cycle valuations due to the brief recovery period of ADTV [1][2]. - The PBOC's swap facility may negatively impact brokers' long-term valuations by reducing return on equity (ROE) levels and increasing market risk [10][12]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Valuation Cycle - The current ADTV is Rmb 1.0 trillion, with a significant increase to Rmb 2.2 trillion following new government policies [1][2]. - Historical cycles in 2015 and 2020 had peak ADTVs of Rmb 1.1 trillion, with the current cycle lasting only three weeks compared to previous cycles lasting 9 to 15 months [1][2]. Part 2: PBOC Swap Line Implications - The PBOC's swap line could lower brokers' long-term ROE, especially if swap quotas increase, which would negatively affect capital returns [10][12]. - The report suggests that brokers' participation in the swap could heighten market risk and limit stable income sources, leading to lower valuation multiples [10][12]. Part 3: Model Revision and Target Price Change - Earnings forecasts for the three brokers have been revised, with an average revenue increase of 11% year-on-year for 2025, compared to a consensus of 11% [18]. - Target price adjustments reflect a 12% increase on average for both A and H shares, with target PEs adjusted to 9x for H-shares and 19x for A-shares [18].