高盛：最受关注_选举后经济政策

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or sectors discussed Core Insights - The upcoming US election is a focal point for economic policy implications, with contrasting views from candidates on tariffs, taxes, and regulation [1][6][7] - Despite significant differences in proposed economic policies, the report suggests that asset impacts may be modest if major policy tail risks are avoided, with a friendly macro outlook being a more significant driver of markets [1][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of owning protection around the election due to macro risks [1][8] Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The odds of a US recession have been lowered by 5 percentage points to 15% following a stronger-than-expected employment report [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts, reaching a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% by June 2025 [4] - Job growth is estimated at 196,000, exceeding the breakeven rate of 150-180,000 [4] Trade and Tax Policy - The report discusses the potential impacts of tariffs, particularly on China, estimating that targeted tariffs would have small global inflation impacts but more significant growth impacts [8][9] - The analysis indicates that a shift in corporate tax policies could catalyze changes in the performance of high versus low tax stocks, with historical data suggesting that concrete legislative steps are necessary for meaningful stock price adjustments [8][9] Sector Impacts - The report highlights potential sector impacts from the election outcomes, with financials likely to be sensitive to changes in corporate tax rates and regulatory frameworks [96] - The clean energy sector may face shifts depending on the future of the Inflation Reduction Act, with potential tariff increases benefiting domestic manufacturers [97][98] Asset Market Implications - The report anticipates only modest asset market impacts in central cases, with larger moves likely in tail scenarios related to trade and fiscal policy shifts [66][68] - The analysis suggests that the election outcome could lead to rotations within the equity market, influenced by changes in tax and regulatory policies [66][68] Global Economic Considerations - The report discusses the potential global impacts of US election outcomes, particularly on China and the Euro area, with higher tariffs likely to increase trade policy uncertainty and weigh on growth [43][44] - It notes that a Trump presidency could lead to significant tariff increases, while a Harris presidency may maintain the status quo [43][44]