石油化工行业周报：对标海外能源公司，中国海油具有更好的安全边际

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, particularly highlighting the cost advantages and safety margins of CNOOC compared to international peers [2][3] Core Views - CNOOC has a significant cost advantage, with its barrel oil cost decreasing from $32.5/barrel in 2017 to $28.8/barrel in 2023, placing it among the top international players in terms of cost competitiveness [2][3] - The company's product structure, with 78% oil and 22% natural gas, provides better profitability and cash flow stability compared to peers, as oil typically has higher realized prices than natural gas [2][7] - CNOOC's natural gas pricing strategy, which relies more on long-term contracts and proximity to consumption areas, results in higher and more stable realized gas prices compared to international energy companies [2][6] Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices rose by 4.09% to $76.05/barrel, while NYMEX crude oil prices increased by 3.70% to $71.78/barrel as of October 25 [2][14] - US commercial crude oil inventories stood at 426 million barrels, 4% below the five-year average, while gasoline inventories were 214 million barrels, 3% below the five-year average [2][16] - The upstream oil service sector is showing signs of recovery, with day rates for jack-up rigs increasing, although they remain at relatively low levels [2][23] Refining Sector - Overseas refined oil crack spreads declined, with Singapore's refining product composite spread dropping by $1.04/barrel to $8.48/barrel [2][30] - Olefin spreads improved, with ethylene-naphtha spreads rising by $12.29/ton to $172.20/ton, though still below the historical average of $415/ton [2][35] - Refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices moderate, with domestic refining product spreads still at low levels but showing potential for recovery [2][29] Polyester Sector - PTA profitability increased, with the PTA-0.66*PX spread rising by 58 yuan/ton to 433 yuan/ton, though still below the historical average of 803 yuan/ton [2][52] - Polyester filament POY spreads decreased by 132 yuan/ton to 1266 yuan/ton, below the historical average of 1408 yuan/ton [2][52] - The polyester industry is expected to improve as new capacity additions slow down, with demand showing signs of recovery during the peak season [2][46] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on large-scale refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Oriental Energy due to potential cost improvements and favorable tax reforms [2][9] - In the polyester sector, Tongkun Group is highlighted for its potential as demand improves during the peak season [2][9] - Satellite Chemical is recommended for its low-cost ethane-to-ethylene projects, which are expected to expand domestically [2][9] - Upstream companies like PetroChina and CNOOC are favored for their potential to increase production and improve operational quality, supported by higher oil prices [2][9]