摩根士丹利：大中华区半导体 PC 半导体

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" rating for the Greater China Semiconductors industry [2]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a deep sub-seasonal fourth quarter for PC semiconductors, primarily due to ongoing inventory digestion outside of China, with a conservative outlook for the first half of 2025 [2]. - There is a slight pickup in PC demand in China, likely driven by government stimulus, but AI PC disappointments and high inventory levels in non-China markets are expected to pressure growth in Q4 2024 [2][3]. - Desktop semiconductors are viewed as more stable compared to notebook semiconductors, with a recommendation to stay Overweight (OW) on ASMedia and Underweight (UW) on Realtek and Parade [2]. Summary by Sections Market Demand and Supply - PC semiconductors are expected to show a sequential decline in Q4 2024, primarily due to ongoing inventory digestion and disappointing AI PC demand from key US SoC vendors [2]. - The report notes that while there are signs of demand recovery in China, it may not be sufficient to reverse the overall downtrend in the market [2]. Company Recommendations - ASMedia is recommended as Overweight due to stable chipset business for desktop PCs, while Realtek and Parade are rated Underweight due to weaker-than-expected demand [2][3]. - The report suggests that new server opportunities may emerge in the second half of 2025, which could provide a boost to certain companies in the semiconductor supply chain [2]. Earnings Forecasts - The report indicates that earnings forecasts for Realtek may see downside due to weaker-than-expected demand for PC semiconductors [2]. - Parade's premium notebook exposure might cushion some downside, but overall growth drivers outside of notebooks appear limited [2].