Investment Ratings - Semiconductor Industry: Attractive [3] - Semiconductor Capital Equipment: Cautious [3] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strength in AI and cloud sectors, while other areas are gradually bottoming out [1] - Texas Instruments (TXN) is expected to see a mixed setup with a seasonal decline forecasted for the December quarter, despite signs of a bottoming out in analog revenue [1][8] - Lam Research (LRCX) faces potential downward revisions for 2025 estimates due to NAND capex pushouts and risks associated with a slowdown in China [1][25] - Teradyne (TER) is anticipated to have a good year in 2025, but the extent of growth remains uncertain [1][17] - Western Digital (WDC) is expected to have a weak outlook due to ongoing strength in HDDs being offset by weaker NAND demand [1][38] Summary by Company Texas Instruments (TXN) - Forecasted revenue for the September quarter is 3.986 billion, down 3.2% quarter-over-quarter and 2.2% year-over-year [9] Lam Research (LRCX) - Expected NAND shipments to increase by 47% year-over-year in 2025, but near-term increases in NAND spending are unlikely [1][25] - Revenue for the June quarter is modeled at 718 million, with a gross margin of 59.0% [18] - December quarter revenue is projected at 4.109 billion, with HDD growth of 3.0% quarter-over-quarter and NAND growth of 16.1% [40] - December quarter revenue is projected to increase to 1.756 billion, with a gross margin of 45.5% [55] - December quarter revenue is projected at $1.770 billion, reflecting a slight increase quarter-over-quarter [55] General Semiconductor Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a gradual recovery, with specific segments like AI and cloud computing driving growth [1] - The overall outlook for 2025 remains cautious, with potential headwinds from geopolitical factors and market dynamics [1][25]
摩根士丹利：半导体-北美周报：第 1 周收益 (TXN、LRCX、TER、WDC、ON
摩根大通·2024-10-28 00:26