摩根士丹利：中国电动汽车 - 初创公司在 9 月借助新车发布重新夺回市场份额

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley [5] Core Insights - EV startups regained market share in September due to multiple model launches, while BYD lagged despite ramping up DM-i 5.0 models [1] - Li Auto maintained a steady market share of 4.8% in September, with significant month-on-month growth in L9/8/7 volumes [1] - XPeng's EV share increased by 0.7% month-on-month to 1.7%, driven by strong performance in high-tier regions [2] - NIO's market share grew to 2% in September, with notable gains in major cities [2] - ZEEKR's share rose to 1.9%, supported by sales in the Yangtze River Delta region [3] - BYD's market share decreased to 33.3% in September, particularly in low-tier regions, although its overall 3Q share grew to 34.3% [3] - Tesla's share remained stable, with gains in low-tier regions offsetting losses in major cities [3] - Among luxury brands, BMW's share recovered slightly, while Mercedes saw a slight decline [4] Summary by Sections Market Share Dynamics - Li Auto's market share was steady at 4.8% in September, with a notable drop of 3.8% in Shenzhen but a high of 16% overall [1] - XPeng's share increased to 1.7%, with expectations to meet delivery targets due to a solid order backlog [2] - NIO's share grew to 2%, with significant gains in cities like Hainan and Beijing [2] - ZEEKR's share increased to 1.9%, with a focus on the Yangtze River Delta region [3] - BYD's share fell to 33.3%, with a 1.7 percentage point increase in overall 3Q share [3] - Tesla's share remained stable, with regional variations noted [3] Regional Performance - Li Auto's volumes grew double-digits month-on-month, indicating strong regional performance [1] - XPeng's gains were more pronounced in high-tier regions, reflecting effective market strategies [2] - NIO's notable share gains were concentrated in major cities, highlighting urban demand [2] - ZEEKR's performance in the Yangtze River Delta suggests a targeted approach to market expansion [3] - BYD's decline in low-tier regions indicates potential challenges in those markets [3] - Tesla's performance varied significantly across regions, with losses in major cities countered by gains in lower-tier areas [3] Luxury Segment Insights - BMW's market share recovered by 0.4 percentage points, indicating a positive response to pricing strategies [4] - Mercedes experienced a slight decline, suggesting competitive pressures in the luxury segment [4]