摩根士丹利：全球技术_AI供应链_AI智能手机发展的现实检验

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for Apple and its iPhone supply chain in Asia, including Hon Hai and TSMC, while also favoring MediaTek, Xiaomi, and Sunny Optical in the China smartphone supply chain [8][9][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Apple Intelligence, set to launch on October 28, 2024, is expected to significantly influence iPhone upgrade decisions, with 60% of surveyed iPhone owners indicating its importance [22][24]. - The report notes that while new AI features are anticipated to drive a long-term smartphone replacement cycle, immediate changes are not expected due to the gradual rollout of Apple Intelligence and the lack of compelling applications in the Android ecosystem [8][9][12]. - The report identifies three major trends in the China AI smartphone app development: the ability to call other apps via AI agents, edge training for privacy, and the use of AI emojis/avatars [8][9][12]. Summary by Sections AI Supply Chain Overview - The report discusses the strong demand for AI infrastructure, particularly from hyperscalers, with a projected operating cash flow of $176 billion in 2025 for the top four US hyperscalers [26][37]. - It emphasizes the importance of edge AI applications for monetization and the ongoing investment in data centers for AI purposes [8][9][26]. Apple Intelligence Features - Key features of Apple Intelligence include new writing tools, a revamped Siri interface, text summarization capabilities, and enhanced natural language support in Safari and the App Store [22][24]. - The report anticipates that several highly sought-after features will not be available until the iOS 18.2 update in December 2024 [22][24]. China Smartphone AI Development - The report expresses skepticism about whether Chinese Android smartphones can match the user experience offered by Apple Intelligence, citing challenges in integrating various local LLMs [12][22]. - It notes that while the replacement cycle for Chinese AI smartphones could occur, it may be slower than anticipated due to the current lack of "killer apps" [12][22]. Stock Implications - The report suggests that TSMC's strong guidance for Q4 2024 indicates robust demand for high-end smartphones, although a seasonal decline is expected in Q1 2025 [8][9]. - It highlights potential market share loss for Largan in Q4 2024, which may be attributed to its own issues rather than broader market trends [8][9].