摩根士丹利：全球新兴市场策略师_等待游戏

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for emerging market (EM) sovereign credits, particularly for BB-rated credits, with the highest net upgrades since 2011 [21][29][39] Core Insights - The report highlights that 2024 has seen significant upgrades in sovereign credit ratings, particularly for BB-rated countries, driven by improved fiscal fundamentals [21][29][39] - The report emphasizes that while upgrades are occurring, many are already priced into the market, suggesting limited upside for certain credits [21][29][39] - The focus on valuations over anticipated rating changes is noted, with specific recommendations for cheaper credits like Colombia and Ivory Coast [21][29][39] Summary by Sections Sovereign Credit Strategy - The report discusses the momentum of credit upgrades, particularly for BB-rated sovereigns, and notes that fiscal improvements are key drivers [21][29][39] - It mentions that while upgrades are positive, many are already reflected in current market prices, limiting potential gains [21][29][39] FX & EM Strategy - The report outlines strategies for managing currency risks, particularly in relation to the upcoming US elections and their potential impact on EM currencies [5][7][8] - It suggests that the USD may strengthen if trade tensions escalate post-election, impacting EM currencies [5][7][8] Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the US economy is diverging from other major economies, which could support the USD against EM currencies [7][8][9] - It highlights the importance of local narratives in EM markets to justify currency strength or weakness [7][8][9] Regional Focus - The report provides insights into specific regions, noting that Turkey's currency (TRY) is expected to perform better than bonds, with a forecast of USD/TRY at 36 by year-end [11][12][13] - It discusses the outlook for various currencies in the CEEMEA region, emphasizing the need for careful positioning given the uncertain macro environment [11][12][13] Trade Recommendations - The report includes specific trade recommendations, such as long positions in certain currencies and bonds, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook for select EM assets [21][29][39] - It suggests maintaining a neutral stance on certain bonds while favoring others based on current valuations and market conditions [21][29][39]