摩根士丹利：中国九月有机硅贸易数据

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the silicones industry, but it includes detailed trade data that may inform investment decisions. Core Insights - In September 2024, China exported 42.8kt of silicones, a 12% increase compared to September 2023, but a 12% decrease from August 2024. Year-to-date exports reached 411kt, up 35% from the same period in 2023. Export prices rose by 3% sequentially to $2,668/t in September 2024, but were down 2% year-over-year from $2,734/t in September 2023 [1][2]. - China imported 8.2kt of silicones in September 2024, a 4% increase year-over-year but a 14% decrease sequentially. Year-to-date imports totaled 82.3kt, a 5% increase from 2023. Import prices fell by 4% from $8,032/t in August 2024 to $7,682/t in September 2024, remaining relatively stable compared to $7,706/t in September 2023 [1][2]. - Net exports for the year to date totaled 328.3kt, a 46% increase compared to the same period in 2023, and are projected to annualize to 438kt, which is 44% higher than the full-year 2023 levels [2]. Summary by Sections Export Data - In September 2024, China exported 42.8kt of silicones, with a year-to-date total of 411kt, reflecting a 35% increase from 2023. The export price in September was $2,668/t, up 3% from August but down 2% year-over-year [1][2][3]. Import Data - China imported 8.2kt of silicones in September 2024, a 4% increase year-over-year but a 14% decrease from August. Year-to-date imports reached 82.3kt, a 5% increase from 2023, with import prices declining to $7,682/t [1][2][5]. Net Export Data - Year-to-date net exports totaled 328.3kt, a 46% increase from 2023, with projections indicating an annual total of 438kt, which is 44% higher than the previous year [2][6].