同庆楼：战略投入期业绩承压，关注2025年业绩释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Tongqinglou (605108) [4] Core Views - Tongqinglou is in a strategic investment phase, with performance under pressure, but attention should be paid to the potential performance release in 2025 [1][4] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 80 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.9% [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.449 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95.7% [2][6] - The decline in Q3 revenue is attributed to the off-season, high base effect from the previous year, and the impact of the "No Spring Year" phenomenon [6] - The company opened 7 new large-scale stores in the first three quarters, with a total construction area of 223,000 square meters, leading to a loss of approximately 30 million yuan due to the ramp-up period [6] - The company's financial expenses increased by nearly 20 million yuan due to new bank loans during the strategic development phase [6] - The report forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2.55 billion yuan, 2.98 billion yuan, and 3.62 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.3%, 16.9%, and 21.4%, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 130 million yuan, 310 million yuan, and 450 million yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -57.1%, 137.0%, and 44.8%, respectively [6] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's total revenue for 2022 was 1.67 billion yuan, increasing to 2.40 billion yuan in 2023, and is expected to reach 2.55 billion yuan in 2024, 2.98 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.62 billion yuan in 2026 [7] - EBITDA for 2022 was 286 million yuan, increasing to 623 million yuan in 2023, and is expected to reach 818 million yuan in 2024, 1.08 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.13 billion yuan in 2026 [7] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.50 yuan in 2024, 1.19 yuan in 2025, and 1.72 yuan in 2026 [7] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to be 40.1 in 2024, 16.9 in 2025, and 11.7 in 2026 [7] - The P/B ratio is expected to be 2.3 in 2024, 2.1 in 2025, and 1.9 in 2026 [7] Industry and Market Position - Tongqinglou operates in the social services/hotel and catering industry [4] - The company's current stock price is 20.16 yuan, with a market capitalization of 5.24 billion yuan [4] - The company's total share capital is 260 million shares, with a circulating A-share market value of 5.24 billion yuan [4] - The company's net asset per share is 8.53 yuan, and the asset-liability ratio is 55.32% [4]