9月及三季度工企利润数据点评：需求端对工业企业盈利能力仍有掣肘

Economic Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled CNY 52,281.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of 3.5%, with a significant drop of 4.0 percentage points compared to January-August[2] - In September, profits of industrial enterprises fell by 27.1% year-on-year, worsening by 9.3 percentage points from August[2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - Revenue for industrial enterprises in the first three quarters increased by 2.1% year-on-year, down by 0.3 percentage points from January-August, achieving CNY 77.2 in revenue per CNY 100 of assets, an increase of CNY 0.7[2] - Operating costs rose by 2.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-August, indicating cost pressures impacting profitability[2] Profitability Metrics - The operating profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from January-August[4] - The industrial added value growth rate in September was 5.4%, up by 0.9 percentage points from August, providing some support to profitability despite ongoing price weakness[4] Sector-Specific Insights - Manufacturing profits declined by 3.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a negative shift of 4.9 percentage points compared to January-August, indicating weakened support for overall industrial profitability[5] - The raw material processing industry continued to weaken, contributing negatively to profit growth by 3.3 percentage points, with significant contributions from the petroleum, coal, and non-metallic mineral industries[5] Demand and Policy Implications - Demand-side constraints remain a significant issue for industrial profitability, particularly linked to the real estate sector's investment shortfalls[12] - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting emphasized the need for increased fiscal policies to stimulate demand, with expectations for enhanced government investment and income redistribution measures to boost domestic consumption[12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include overseas recession and geopolitical uncertainties, which could further impact industrial profitability and economic stability[12]