9月及三季度经济数据点评：9月复苏好于预期 积极迹象有所显现

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, matching market expectations and slightly lower than Q2's 4.7%[6] - The GDP deflator for the first three quarters was -0.7%, indicating continued price weakness[7] Industrial Production - September industrial value added increased by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 4.6%[6] - The average growth rate over two years, adjusted for base effects, was 4.95%, marking a recent high[10] Consumer Spending - September retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.3%[6] - Service retail sales increased by 6.7% from January to September, outpacing goods retail sales by 3.5 percentage points[12] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to September, fixed asset investment grew by 3.4% year-on-year, stabilizing after five months of decline[14] - Infrastructure investment showed signs of recovery, with broad and narrow definitions growing by 9.3% and 4.1% respectively[14] Risks and Outlook - Continued policy coordination is needed to address insufficient domestic demand and market expectations[4] - Potential risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties[4]