石油石化行业专题研究：2024Q3大化工行业基金持仓分析：石化重仓降低，化工延续低配

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the petrochemical industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][5] Core Insights - As of Q3 2024, the heavy holdings in petrochemicals have significantly decreased, while the basic chemicals sector continues to be underweighted [6][12] - The total market value of heavy holdings in petrochemicals is 27.579 billion, down 35.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a heavy holding ratio of 1.49%, which is 1.80 percentage points lower than the standard ratio for the petrochemical sector [6][12] - The total market value of heavy holdings in basic chemicals is 47.940 billion, up 3.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a heavy holding ratio of 2.67%, which is 1.23 percentage points lower than the standard ratio for the basic chemicals sector [6][12] Summary by Sections Petrochemical Sector - The heavy holdings in the oil and gas extraction sector have seen a significant quarter-on-quarter decline, with the heavy holding market value ratio decreasing by 0.77 percentage points to 1.02% [7][24] - The refining and trading sector has also experienced a slight reduction in allocation, with the heavy holding market value ratio decreasing by 0.28 percentage points to 0.39% [7][24] - The top five heavy holdings are China National Offshore Oil Corporation (H shares), China National Petroleum Corporation (A shares), Guanghui Energy, China Petroleum (A shares), and CNOOC Development [7][22] Basic Chemicals Sector - The main areas of increased investment include polyurethane, synthetic resin, pesticides, and food and feed additives, with heavy holding ratios increasing by 4.07 percentage points, 1.54 percentage points, 0.79 percentage points, and 0.79 percentage points respectively [8][28] - Conversely, nitrogen fertilizers, polyester, soda ash, and fluorochemicals have seen a reduction in allocation, with heavy holding ratios decreasing by 4.18 percentage points, 1.10 percentage points, 1.13 percentage points, and 1.72 percentage points respectively [8][28] - The top five heavy holdings in basic chemicals are Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Juhua Co., and Haohua Technology [30][32] Northbound Capital Flows - In Q3 2024, northbound capital saw a net inflow of 2.612 billion into the petrochemical sector, an increase from 0.136 billion in Q2 2024 [9][38] - Conversely, there was a net outflow of 1.506 billion from the basic chemicals sector during the same period [9][38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream sectors and those with improving supply and demand dynamics within the petrochemical industry, particularly as leading state-owned enterprises continue to optimize and increase reserves [9][40] - In the basic chemicals sector, the market may favor sectors with greater certainty and risk resistance, particularly those with limited supply and improving supply-demand conditions [9][40]