中国神华：成本超预期下降，动力煤龙头经营稳健

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Trading Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% based on current valuations [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 253.9 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 46.074 billion, down 4.5% year-over-year, but the performance exceeded expectations [3][4]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 85.8 billion, up 3% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter, with a net profit of CNY 16.57 billion, marking an 11% increase year-over-year and a 22% increase quarter-over-quarter [3][4]. - The coal segment's profit for Q3 was CNY 15.065 billion, up 19.3% year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin of 31.2%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-over-year [4]. - The power generation segment reached a record high in electricity sales, generating a profit of CNY 3.18 billion in Q3, with a gross margin of 15.8% [4]. - The report anticipates net profits of CNY 60.3 billion, CNY 61.3 billion, and CNY 63.7 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-over-year growth of 1%, 2%, and 4% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the mining sector, with coal revenue accounting for 68.8% of total income, followed by power generation at 25.5%, transportation at 4.3%, and coal chemical at 1.4% [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s A-share price as of October 25, 2024, was CNY 40.93, with a market capitalization of CNY 674.978 billion. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.96, and the earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at CNY 3.03 [3][5]. - The company’s dividend per share (DPS) is expected to be CNY 2.27 for 2024, with an A-share dividend yield of 5.56% and an H-share yield of 7.49% [5]. Market Position - The company is a leading player in the domestic coal industry, benefiting from cost control and integrated coal-power operations. The current valuation is considered reasonable, supporting the "Trading Buy" rating [4].