全球变暖中的汹涌海洋（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes that sea-level rise (SLR) is a significant crisis driven by human-induced climate change, with urgent action required to mitigate its impacts [1][3] - Current and projected impacts of SLR are particularly severe for coastal communities and low-lying island nations, with the potential for devastating consequences if political leaders do not take decisive climate actions [3][16] Current State of Sea-Level Rise - Global mean sea level has risen by 20 cm from 1901 to 2018, with an increase of 9.4 cm from 1993 to 2023, marking the highest level in modern records [6][7] - The rate of SLR has accelerated, with an average increase of 0.48 cm per year from 2014 to 2023, more than double the rate from 1993 to 2002 [6][7] - Melting land ice and thermal expansion of seawater are the primary drivers of SLR, with significant contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets [5][8] Projections of Future Sea-Level Rise - Future SLR projections vary significantly based on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, with estimates ranging from 18 cm by 2050 and 38 cm by 2100 under low-emission scenarios to 23 cm by 2050 and 77 cm by 2100 under high-emission scenarios [10][12] - A worst-case scenario under high emissions could see SLR exceed 2.3 m by 2100 [11] - Historical emissions are expected to lead to a committed SLR of 0.7–1.1 m by 2300, regardless of future emissions [9][10] Global Impacts and Implications of Sea-Level Rise - SLR poses major risks to low-lying islands, coastal megacities, and agricultural deltas, threatening safety, security, and sustainability [16][17] - The low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) generates around 14% of global GDP and is home to nearly 900 million people, projected to exceed 1 billion by 2050 [16][17] - Annual costs of coastal flooding for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are estimated at USD 1.64 billion, highlighting the economic impact of SLR [17] Impacts on Pacific Small Island Developing States - Pacific SIDS are particularly vulnerable to SLR, with local sea level changes projected to be 10–30% higher than the global average by 2100 [31][32] - Under a scenario of 3°C warming, median SLR for the Pacific region is projected to range from 50–97 cm by 2100 [32][33] - The frequency of flooding days is expected to increase dramatically, with some islands projected to experience up to 165 flooding days per year by the 2050s [35][36]