建立以利率为中间目标的货币政策新框架

Industry Overview - The report discusses the transition of China's monetary policy framework from a quantity-based system (focused on money supply) to a price-based system (focused on interest rates) [1][2] - The shift began in 2018 when China stopped announcing M2 growth targets, marking the de facto abandonment of the quantity-based framework [1][3] - The new framework aims to establish an interest rate corridor mechanism and improve the transmission of monetary policy [1][13] Key Challenges in the Old Framework - The quantity-based framework faced issues with controllability and correlation between money supply and economic targets [4][5] - Financial innovation and changes in liquidity structures weakened the effectiveness of money supply as an intermediate target [5] - The divergence between M1 and M2 growth rates created challenges for policy implementation [4] New Framework and Policy Tools - The report suggests using the overnight repo rate as the intermediate target rate, given its liquidity and stability [15][20] - The interest rate corridor mechanism should be refined, with the lower bound (excess reserve rate) and upper bound (SLF rate) adjusted to reflect policy intentions [21][23] - The framework requires a combination of policy tools, including central bank lending, open market operations, and reserve requirement adjustments [24][26] Market Development and Policy Implementation - The bond repo market plays a crucial role in monetary policy transmission, with overnight repos accounting for 87.5% of total repo transactions in 2023 [20] - The report emphasizes the need to expand government bond issuance and diversify bond maturities to support open market operations [30][31] - Coordination between central bank lending and open market operations is essential for effective interest rate smoothing and yield curve management [27][29] Recommendations - Establish the overnight repo rate as the intermediate target rate [33] - Refine the interest rate corridor mechanism by adjusting the excess reserve rate and replacing the SLF rate with a more frequently used tool [33] - Normalize the reserve requirement ratio to improve interest rate transmission efficiency [33] - Enhance coordination between central bank lending and open market operations [33] - Expand government bond issuance and optimize bond maturity structures to support monetary policy operations [34]