中国化工行业信用梳理（2024）

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Chinese chemical industry is assessed as "high risk" due to supply-demand imbalances and strong price cyclicality affecting most chemical products [2][4][6] Core Insights - The Chinese chemical industry faces dual challenges of supply-demand imbalance and strong cyclicality in product price changes, leading to significant fluctuations in corporate performance [4][6] - The assessment of the credit status of sample chemical enterprises indicates that most are concentrated in the "average" range, reflecting their operational and financial performance's susceptibility to cyclical fluctuations [2][4] - The report highlights that despite some leading companies having strong market positions, they cannot completely escape the challenges posed by the industry's inherent cyclicality [4][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Chinese chemical industry is characterized by a wide variety of products and applications, but most products currently suffer from supply-demand imbalances [2][4] - Fixed asset investment in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing grew by 15.7% and 31.8% year-on-year in 2022, significantly outpacing overall economic growth [4][5] Financial Risks - Major financial risks faced by Chinese chemical enterprises include negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures, increasing debt levels leading to high leverage, and poor short-term liquidity indicators [2][4][23] - The average EBITDA margin for sample enterprises is around 12%, with nearly half recording negative free cash flow ratios, reflecting the impact of high investment growth [24][25] Operational Risks - The operational risks are assessed based on product mix fundamentals, market position, diversity, and cost position [11][20] - Companies with strong pricing power and high entry barriers tend to have a more prominent market position, while those in highly competitive segments face significant challenges [14][20] Sample Analysis - The report analyzes 36 sample chemical enterprises, covering various segments such as basic chemicals, specialty chemicals, agricultural chemicals, and industrial gases [9][10] - The ownership structure of the sample includes 55% private enterprises, 25% local state-owned enterprises, and 17% central state-owned enterprises, reflecting the diverse nature of the industry [10][12]