不良住房抵押贷款的回收数据分析：来自对不良资产证券化公开数据的观察

Group 1: NPAS Market Overview - The issuance of mortgage NPAS began in 2016, with a total of 78 products issued by September 2024, accounting for 15.8% of all NPAS types[5] - The number of mortgage NPAS issuances surged to 24 in 2023, three times that of 2022, indicating a significant increase in market activity[5] - Mortgage NPAS has the highest issuance scale among all NPAS types, representing 36.8% of the total issuance volume[5] Group 2: Recovery Rates and Trends - The cumulative recovery rates for mortgage NPAS are generally higher than those for credit NPAS, with three-year cumulative recovery levels at 20%, 40%, and 50% respectively, and a historical maximum of 90%[2] - Over 50% of non-performing loans are disposed of within 60 months, with the maximum disposal rate observed at nearly 70%[3] - The cash flow recovery from disposed non-performing loans consistently exceeds 60% across all recovery periods[3] Group 3: Recovery Mechanisms - The primary recovery method for non-performing housing loans is through the disposal of mortgaged properties, with an estimated recovery rate of nearly 100% for disposed loans[4] - Approximately 80% to 90% of disposed loans rely on the sale of mortgaged properties for recovery[4] - The average monthly recovery rate decreases over time, with the first 12 months averaging 1.5%, dropping to around 0.5% by the 49th to 60th month[26] Group 4: Impact of Economic Conditions - The recovery levels of mortgage NPAS have been negatively impacted by the recent economic slowdown and declining real estate market, affecting the liquidity and value of second-hand housing[11] - Early mortgage NPAS transactions (2016-2017) showed significantly better recovery rates compared to later years due to more favorable market conditions[12]