2024年第三季度成都房地产市场回顾

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chengdu real estate market, particularly in the office and retail sectors, driven by increased supply and demand recovery [1][20]. Core Insights - Chengdu is positioned as a western economic center and is expected to benefit from national strategic initiatives, leading to high-quality development opportunities [1]. - The office market in Chengdu saw a significant increase in supply, with approximately 325,000 square meters added in Q3 2024, marking the largest quarterly supply in nearly a decade [2][3]. - Despite the high supply, demand remains subdued, with net absorption recorded at only 16,000 square meters, a decrease of 59.5% compared to the previous quarter [3]. - The vacancy rate for the overall market increased by 2.3 percentage points to 26.5%, with Grade A office vacancy rising to 33.7% [3]. - The TMT sector continues to dominate demand, accounting for 28.5% of new leases, followed by the financial and consumer services sectors [4][6]. - The retail market experienced a temporary boost in foot traffic during the summer, but overall consumer spending growth slowed to 1.9% from January to August [10][11]. Summary by Sections Office Market - In Q3 2024, the Chengdu office market saw a net absorption of 16,000 square meters, with a significant increase in supply leading to a higher vacancy rate [3][4]. - The demand for smaller office spaces (300-500 square meters) increased, while larger spaces (3,000 square meters and above) saw a decline [5]. - The upcoming Q4 2024 is expected to see an additional 309,000 square meters of office space delivered, pushing total stock over 10 million square meters [5]. Retail Market - The retail property market did not see new shopping center openings in Q3 2024, but two new projects added 150,000 square meters of commercial space [9]. - The demand for retail space is shifting, with local brands expanding and a notable increase in the number of first stores opening in key commercial areas [11][12]. - The retail market is expected to see 320,000 square meters of new supply in Q4 2024, indicating a recovery in the sector [13]. Logistics and Warehousing Market - The logistics market recorded negative net absorption for the third consecutive quarter, primarily due to reduced demand from e-commerce [16]. - The overall vacancy rate in the logistics sector increased to 11.7%, with rental prices declining by 4.5% [16][19]. - The upcoming Q4 2024 is projected to introduce 169,000 square meters of new high-standard warehouses [16]. Investment Market - In Q3 2024, the Chengdu investment market recorded two major transactions totaling approximately 160 million yuan, primarily involving commercial and logistics properties [20]. - Recent financial policies are expected to boost confidence in the real estate market, with core assets likely to recover first due to their higher asset value [21].