基础化工行业专题研究：双碳若加速，化工看点足

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - In 2024, policies related to energy conservation and carbon reduction are expected to lead to high-quality development in the new energy industry. For industries with excess capacity, positive changes on the supply side are anticipated, such as the triggering of negative feedback mechanisms, government supply-side reform policies, and joint production cuts by enterprises, which may improve the supply-demand structure in the industry. The report aims to outline the chemical industry sectors with relatively constrained or potentially constrained supply [5][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Industry Outlook - If the dual carbon policy accelerates, there will be significant opportunities in the chemical sector [5][8]. 1.1 Phosphate Chemical Industry - Supply-side reforms will continue to advance, with upstream phosphate rock supply being relatively tight due to resource protection and environmental restrictions. The production capacity utilization rate of phosphate ammonium has improved, and future policies will continue to strictly control new capacity in this sector [5][11]. 1.2 Fluorochemical Industry - PVDF capacity is rapidly expanding, driven by the lithium battery sector, with production capacities of 116,000 tons in 2022 and 146,000 tons in 2023, reflecting growth rates of 56.1% and 26.4%, respectively. The capacity utilization rate is around 60% [5][17]. 1.3 Silicon Chemical Industry - The trichlorosilane industry is expected to strengthen the survival of the fittest mechanism, with capacity utilization rates below 50%. The supply of trichlorosilane has increased significantly due to rapid growth in the photovoltaic sector, but prices are currently at historical lows [5][21]. 1.4 Other Potentially Constrained Chemical Sectors - The supply of polyester filament is expected to marginally increase, with leading companies potentially reducing operating loads to optimize profitability. Other sectors like calcium carbide, polycarbonate, and carbon fiber exhibit high energy consumption and low capacity utilization rates, which may face stricter policy restrictions in the future [5][8]. Investment Suggestions - Focus on phosphate, fluorochemical, and silicon chemical industries, as well as other potentially constrained sectors. Specific recommendations include: 1. Phosphate Chemicals: Monitor the ongoing supply-side reforms in phosphate rock, yellow phosphorus, and phosphate ammonium industries [5][8]. 2. Fluorochemicals: Pay attention to companies with strong performance in industry integration and technological advantages, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Dongyue Group [5][8]. 3. Silicon Chemicals: Focus on companies with scale and cost advantages [5][8]. 4. Other Sectors: Look for leading companies in polyester filament and other high-potential sectors [5][8].