农林牧渔：如何看待2024年前三季度我国饲料产量数据？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3][4]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's total feed production reached 228 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.3%. The decline is attributed to reduced pig inventory and cautious replenishment attitudes among farmers [2][6]. - Pig feed production was 102.29 million tons, down 6.8% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery starting in June 2024 due to improved profitability in pig farming and a gradual increase in inventory [2][7]. - Aquaculture feed production decreased to 18.59 million tons, a decline of 2.8% year-on-year, influenced by low stocking levels and delayed farming schedules. However, demand is expected to improve post-Chinese New Year as prices recover [2][11]. - Pet feed production grew significantly, reaching 1.1 million tons, a 12.4% increase year-on-year, driven by the expanding pet market and increasing consumer focus on pet health [2][17]. - Egg and poultry feed production saw a decline, with egg feed dropping to 2.288 million tons (down 5.9%) and poultry feed slightly increasing to 7.053 million tons (up 0.5%) [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Feed Production Overview - Total feed production in the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with specific declines in compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premix feed [6][19]. - Pig feed production showed a decline of 6.8%, but began to recover in the latter part of the year [6][7]. - Egg feed production reached a five-year low, while poultry feed saw slight growth due to better demand [11][12]. - Aquaculture feed production fell by 2.8%, with both freshwater and marine feed experiencing declines [11][12]. - Ruminant feed production significantly decreased by 11.4%, marking the first decline since 2017 [11][12]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests seizing investment opportunities in feed and pet food companies as market conditions improve [2][23]. - It highlights the potential recovery in aquaculture prices, recommending companies like Haida Group for investment [23]. - The pet food sector is also noted for its growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [23][24]. 3. Price Trends - Feed prices have shown a noticeable decline, with major raw material prices such as corn and soybean meal decreasing significantly compared to their peaks in 2022 [19][20]. - The report indicates that the prices of various feed products have decreased by 8.6% to 9.5% year-on-year, reflecting the downward trend in raw material costs [20][21].