农林牧渔行业10月行业动态报告：Q3末母猪产能环比略增，10月猪价略降

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector, specifically focusing on the livestock breeding chain as a key area of interest [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in the breeding capacity of sows as of the end of Q3, with a minor decline in pig prices observed in October. The price of pigs on October 25 was 17.53 CNY/kg, down 17.3% from the peak on August 15 [1][29]. - The consumer price index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with pork prices rising by 16.2% year-on-year. The overall agricultural product import value was 186.09 billion USD, reflecting a 3.33% increase year-on-year [1][19]. - The report suggests that the supply-demand dynamics for pigs are improving, with expectations of sustained industry profitability due to lower breeding costs and potential price increases in the future [1][31]. Summary by Sections Price Indicators and Market Dynamics - In September, the CPI increased by 0.4%, with food prices rising by 3.3% and pork prices by 16.2% year-on-year. The agricultural product trade deficit was 102.95 billion USD, up 6.40% year-on-year [1][19]. - October saw a slight decline in pig prices, with external piglet breeding profits turning negative. The breeding capacity of sows was reported at 40.62 million heads, a 0.64% increase from the previous month but a 4.20% decrease year-on-year [1][29]. Industry Performance - The agricultural index underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a decline of 3.77% from early October to the 25th, while the latter fell by 1.53%. The planting sector showed a positive growth of 1.07%, while the breeding and feed sectors lagged behind with declines of 5.97% and 2.46%, respectively [2][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes focusing on high-quality pig farming companies with strong cost control, healthy financials, and reasonable valuations, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Tiankang Biological. It also suggests monitoring the poultry sector, particularly Lihua Food, due to potential price increases [3][5]. - The report identifies growth opportunities in the pet sector and recommends companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. Additionally, it highlights the importance of feed leaders like Haida Group and animal vaccine companies [3][5].