2024Q3轻工板块基金持仓点评：造纸重仓比例提升，家居&包装印刷减配

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the light industry sector [4][8][31] Core Insights - The light industry public fund heavy holding ratio is 0.82%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter, which is at the 47% percentile level since 2010 [5][12][30] - In Q3 2024, the heavy holding ratio for the paper sector increased by 0.03 percentage points, while the home furnishing and packaging printing sectors saw a decrease [6][15][19] - The report anticipates a recovery in the home furnishing sector due to supportive real estate policies and trade-in incentives, which are expected to boost consumer demand [19][31][32] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - The heavy holding ratio for the light industry sector is 0.82%, with a decrease of 0.01 percentage points, ranking 22nd in fund allocation among sectors [5][12] - The light industry manufacturing index saw a cumulative change of +15.48% in Q3 2024, with relative performance against the CSI 300 index showing a loss of 0.59 percentage points [5][12] Sector Performance - The heavy holding ratios for light industry sub-sectors in Q3 2024 are as follows: home furnishing (0.38%), entertainment products (0.27%), paper (0.25%), and packaging printing (0.05%) [6][15] - The report highlights that the paper sector's heavy holding ratio increased, while home furnishing and packaging printing saw reductions [6][15][19] Northbound Capital Movements - Northbound capital has reduced holdings in companies like Sophia (-5.32 percentage points) and Gujia Home (-2.72 percentage points), while increasing in others like Mingyue Mirror (+0.59 percentage points) and Aorijun (+0.58 percentage points) [7][26] Future Outlook - The report projects that the home furnishing sector will benefit from recent real estate policy measures and trade-in incentives, leading to a potential recovery in domestic sales growth [19][31] - For the paper industry, the report suggests that recent economic policies may improve downstream demand, which could enhance financial performance in Q4 2024 [32] - The packaging printing sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to improved order conditions and cost reductions [32]