HTI日本消费行业9月跟踪报告：实际工资再陷下滑，餐饮服装维持高增

Macro Environment - Japan's consumer confidence index rose slightly to 36.9 in September, while real wages fell by 0.6% in August [1][2] - Japan's CPI increased by 2.5% YoY in September, with core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising by 2.4%, marking the first slowdown in five months [1][3] - The yen returned to a downward trend in October, with the exchange rate against the US dollar falling by approximately 6% as of October 25 [1][3] - Household real consumption expenditure decreased by 1.9% in August, the second-largest decline this year [1][4] Retail Industry - Japan's retail sales grew by 2.8% YoY in August, marking the 30th consecutive month of growth [1][8] - Apparel retail sales surged by 11.3% YoY, while drugstore, department store, and food & beverage retail sales grew by 2.7%, 2.6%, and 2.2% respectively [1][8] - Saizeriya and Uniqlo reported same-store sales growth exceeding 20% in September [1][8] Staples Sector - Soft drink sales for Kirin, Suntory, and Asahi declined by 4%, 8%, and 4% YoY respectively in September [1][9] - Beer sales for Asahi and Kirin dropped by 19% and 25% YoY respectively [1][9] - PPIH, AEON Retail, and 7-Eleven Japan reported same-store sales growth of +4.6%, +2.6%, and -0.1% YoY in September [1][9] Discretionary Sector - Saizeriya, Food&Life, Skylark, Toridoll, Sukiya, and McDonald's reported same-store sales growth of +25.0%, +13.8%, +11.0%, +10.8%, +8.5%, and +2.8% YoY in September [1][18] - Uniqlo, ABC-MART, Shimamura, and Workman reported same-store sales growth of +22.1%, +6.1%, +4.3%, and +1.5% YoY in September [1][20] - Department stores Marui, Takashimaya, and Mitsukoshi Isetan reported sales growth of +13.7%, +11.9%, and +1.0% YoY in September [1][22] Equity Market Performance - In September, the textile & apparel, retail, and food & beverage sectors rose by 5.9%, 2.4%, and 2.2% respectively, while the services sector fell by 2.6% [1][30] - Within the staples sector, household goods and brewery stocks rose by 5.9% and 5.7% respectively [1][31] - In the discretionary sector, footwear and leisure facility stocks rose by 7.8% and 5.2% respectively [1][32] Investment Recommendations - ASICS is recommended due to its rapid overseas expansion and improved gross profit margins [1][42] - PPIH is highlighted for its strong performance driven by overseas tourist consumption and increased average transaction prices [1][42] - Fast Retailing (Uniqlo) is noted for its strong domestic sales and ongoing overseas store network expansion [1][42] - Asahi Group is recommended for its improved product mix in the domestic beer market and premiumization in Europe and Oceania [1][42]