Toly Bread(603866)2024-10-29 06:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.647 billion, a year-on-year decline of 8.27%, and a net profit of 435 million, down 5.28% year-on-year. The revenue and profit performance were below expectations [5] - The baking industry is experiencing weak demand, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts. Expected net profits for 2024-2026 are 574 million, 636 million, and 702 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.36, 0.40, and 0.44 yuan [5][6] - The company is focusing on expanding production capacity and enhancing supply chain and channel network advantages to increase market share in the baking sector, which is considered a high-growth area [5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 6.47 yuan - One-year high/low: 8.87/4.83 yuan - Market capitalization: 10,350 million yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 2.0 - Dividend yield: 4.64% [2] Financial Data - As of September 30, 2024, the company had a net asset per share of 3.15 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.60% [3] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 6.356 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.0% [7] Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 23.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for the same period was 9.4%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7][6] - The company’s expense ratios remained stable, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios reported at 7.9%, 2.1%, 0.4%, and 0.5% respectively [7] Regional Performance - Revenue growth rates by region for the first three quarters of 2024 showed significant declines, particularly in Northeast and North China, with year-on-year decreases of -13.0% and -9.3% respectively [6]