中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20241029

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the profits of industrial enterprises in China, with a total profit of 52,281.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% [3] - The manufacturing sector's support for industrial enterprise profits continues to weaken, with a notable drop in profit growth rates across various sub-industries, particularly in raw material processing [2][4] - The report emphasizes the need for fiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand, as current industrial profit levels are insufficient [4] Macroeconomic Overview - In September 2024, the profits of industrial enterprises fell by 27.1% year-on-year, a significant increase in the decline compared to August [3] - The operating income of industrial enterprises grew by 2.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while operating costs increased by 2.4%, indicating pressure on profit margins [3] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.3%, slightly down from previous months, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [3] Industry Performance - The report notes that the raw materials processing industry has increasingly dragged down profit growth, with significant contributions to the decline from sectors like petroleum, coal, and non-metallic mineral products [4] - High-tech manufacturing's positive contribution to profit growth has diminished, indicating a broader trend of weakening support from the manufacturing sector [4] Fixed Income Insights - The report discusses the "Trump trade" in the context of U.S. monetary and fiscal policy, suggesting that market expectations may be overly optimistic regarding its impact [5][6] - Polls indicate a slight lead for Trump over Harris, which has influenced market dynamics, including a rise in the U.S. dollar and bond yields [5][6] Fund Allocation Analysis - In the third quarter of 2024, active equity funds showed minor adjustments in allocations, increasing their positions in electric equipment and new energy sectors while reducing exposure to utilities and non-ferrous metals [8] - The top five sectors for fund allocation were electronics, Hong Kong stocks, pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and food and beverage, with notable increases in electric equipment and non-bank financials [8] Company-Specific Insights - The report highlights that Huadian Technology's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 9.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.15%, with a net profit of 1.848 billion yuan, up 93.94% [11] - The company is expanding its high-end production capacity to meet the growing demand from AI and high-speed computing applications [10][12] - Weir Technology reported a record high quarterly performance in Q3 2024, driven by the increasing penetration of high-end mobile CIS in domestic flagship smartphones and growth in automotive CIS due to the autonomous driving market [13][14]