中国石化：业绩磨底，4季度有望修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028) is "Buy" (maintained) [3]. Core Views - Sinopec reported a revenue of 2366.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 4.19% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44.25 billion yuan, down 16.46% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 790.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.80%, while the net profit was 8.54 billion yuan, down 52.15% year-on-year [2][6]. - The chemical products demand is at a low point, and inventory losses have put short-term pressure on the company's performance [6]. - The refined oil segment remains stable, with a total apparent consumption of refined oil at 291 million tons for the first three quarters, an increase of 0.96% year-on-year [6]. - Oil and gas production is stable, with a slight increase in output, supported by high capital expenditure in exploration and development [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Sinopec's revenue was 2366.54 billion yuan, down 4.19% year-on-year, and the net profit was 44.25 billion yuan, down 16.46% year-on-year [2][6]. - Q3 2024 revenue was 790.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.80% year-on-year, while net profit was 8.54 billion yuan, down 52.15% year-on-year [2][6]. Chemical Products and Oil Segment - The average price difference between polyethylene and crude oil was 3211 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.10% year-on-year [6]. - The apparent consumption of refined oil for the first three quarters was 291 million tons, an increase of 0.96% year-on-year [6]. Production and Capital Expenditure - The company’s capital expenditure for exploration and development was 50.765 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.11% year-on-year [6]. - Crude oil production was 211 million barrels, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while natural gas production was 1.05 trillion cubic feet, up 5.6% year-on-year [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 58 billion yuan, 70.3 billion yuan, and 75.3 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - The corresponding EPS for these years is expected to be 0.48 yuan, 0.58 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, with PE ratios of 13.5X, 11.2X, and 10.4X [6].