MP Materials(US:MP)2024-10-29 12:18Investment Rating - Maintains an OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of US$21.60 [1] Core Views - MP Materials is the largest rare earth material producer in the Western Hemisphere, owning the only rare earth mining and processing base in North America, Mountain Pass, which supplies approximately 15% of global rare earth demand [1] - The company reported a 51% YoY decline in operating income to US$31.258 million in 24Q2, with a net loss of US$34.055 million and adjusted EBITDA of US$27.06 million [1] - Rare earth oxide (REO) sales volume and realized price per ton decreased, leading to a decline in operating income and financial performance in 24Q2 [1] Financial Performance - In 24Q2, REO production was 9,084 tons, a 16% YoY decline, while REO sales were 5,839 tons, down 43% YoY [1] - The realized price of REO per ton was US$4,183, a 33% YoY decline [1] - NdPr production reached 272 tons, more than double the previous quarter, while NdPr sales were 136 tons, flat compared to Q1, with a realized price of US$48 per ton, down 22% from Q1 [1] Expansion and Future Plans - MP Materials is expanding its upstream, midstream, and downstream operations, including the Upstream 60K expansion plan, which is progressing steadily [1] - The company expects NdPr production to increase by 50% in Q3 compared to Q2, with improved unit costs as production scales up [1] - The downstream rare earth magnet production line is nearly ready, positioning the company to capitalize on future green technology industries such as electric vehicles and wind turbines [1] Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to be US$151 million, US$341 million, and US$521 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - EPS is forecasted to be -US$0.29, US$0.36, and US$0.65 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company is valued at 60x PE for 2025, with a target price of US$21.60 [1]