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MP Materials Corp-A:西半球最大稀土生产商,无惧业绩波动,持续推进新阶段
MPMP Materials(MP)2024-10-29 12:18

Investment Rating - Maintains an OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of US21.60[1]CoreViewsMPMaterialsisthelargestrareearthmaterialproducerintheWesternHemisphere,owningtheonlyrareearthminingandprocessingbaseinNorthAmerica,MountainPass,whichsuppliesapproximately1521.60** [1] Core Views - MP Materials is the largest rare earth material producer in the Western Hemisphere, owning the only rare earth mining and processing base in North America, Mountain Pass, which supplies approximately **15%** of global rare earth demand [1] - The company reported a **51% YoY decline** in operating income to **US31.258 million in 24Q2, with a net loss of US34.055millionandadjustedEBITDAofUS34.055 million** and adjusted EBITDA of **US27.06 million [1] - Rare earth oxide (REO) sales volume and realized price per ton decreased, leading to a decline in operating income and financial performance in 24Q2 [1] Financial Performance - In 24Q2, REO production was 9,084 tons, a 16% YoY decline, while REO sales were 5,839 tons, down 43% YoY [1] - The realized price of REO per ton was US4,183,a334,183**, a **33% YoY decline** [1] - NdPr production reached **272 tons**, more than double the previous quarter, while NdPr sales were **136 tons**, flat compared to Q1, with a realized price of **US48 per ton, down 22% from Q1 [1] Expansion and Future Plans - MP Materials is expanding its upstream, midstream, and downstream operations, including the Upstream 60K expansion plan, which is progressing steadily [1] - The company expects NdPr production to increase by 50% in Q3 compared to Q2, with improved unit costs as production scales up [1] - The downstream rare earth magnet production line is nearly ready, positioning the company to capitalize on future green technology industries such as electric vehicles and wind turbines [1] Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to be US151million,US151 million**, **US341 million, and US521millionfor2024,2025,and2026,respectively[1]EPSisforecastedtobeUS521 million** for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - EPS is forecasted to be **-US0.29, US0.36,andUS0.36**, and **US0.65 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company is valued at 60x PE for 2025, with a target price of US$21.60 [1]