ANHUI EXPRESSWAY(SH:600012)2024-10-30 01:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 1.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 411 million yuan, down 19.57% year-on-year. For the first three quarters, revenue was 5.04 billion yuan, up 16.10% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.22 billion yuan, down 9.60% year-on-year, indicating performance slightly below expectations [4][5]. - The decline in traffic volume is significantly impacted by the ongoing expansion of the Xuanguang and Guangci highways, with average daily traffic volume for Xuanguang down 58.79% and toll revenue down 67.09% from July to September 2024. The expansion is expected to be completed by the end of the year, leading to a rapid recovery in traffic volume [5][6]. - The overall highway transportation sector showed steady growth in Q3, with slight increases in passenger and freight volumes. The investment in highway construction in Anhui province has increased, providing ample underlying assets for potential mergers and acquisitions [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.63 billion yuan, with a slight decrease expected in 2024 to 6.53 billion yuan, followed by growth in subsequent years. The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [8][10]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.99 yuan for 2024, with a gradual increase to 1.15 yuan by 2026. The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14, 13, and 12, respectively [8][10].