中国策略：场内只有追涨杀跌，场外增量有散户有国资

Investment Focus - The National Team currently holds nearly 1 trillion yuan worth of ETFs and is not expected to reduce its holdings in the short term. Over the past year, the National Team has increased its holdings of mainstream ETFs by over 280 billion shares, with a total cost exceeding 800 billion yuan, yielding approximately a 20% return based on the latest net asset value [1][10][11] - The recent shift in buyers of mainstream ETFs from institutional to retail investors has resulted in a net inflow of 100 billion yuan from September 24 to October 25, although there were significant outflows in the last two weeks [2][11] - The off-exchange ETFs are gaining traction due to lower fees and a wider selection, with the CS A500 off-exchange fund achieving nearly 20 billion yuan in sales on its first day and reaching 70 billion yuan in two days [12][16] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that retail investors are expected to continue pouring funds into the stock market, particularly through ETFs, as deposit rates remain low and wealth management product yields decline. This shift is anticipated to result in a potential inflow of 10 trillion yuan into the stock market over the next three years [14][15] - The report notes that state-owned capital has relatively low allocations to ETFs compared to overseas markets, where pension funds and sovereign wealth funds have significantly increased their ETF holdings. The Chinese government is promoting the development of equity mutual funds and ETFs, which is expected to drive the growth of ETFs in China [16][16]