Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600)2024-10-30 04:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.959 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 6.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.67%. The Q3 revenue was 8.891 billion, down 5.28% year-on-year, and the net profit was 1.348 billion, down 9.03% year-on-year, indicating performance below expectations [5][6] - Due to weak external demand, profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been lowered, with projected net profits of 4.46 billion, 4.81 billion, and 5.34 billion respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 21, 19, and 18 for 2024-2026 [6] - The company’s valuation has returned to a relative low over the past decade, with potential for increased dividend rates and a dividend yield of 3% for 2023, making it attractive [6] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of October 29, 2024: 68.51 yuan - Market capitalization: 48,576 million yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 3.3 - Dividend yield: 2.92% [2] Financial Data - As of September 30, 2024, the net asset per share was 21.84 yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 39.11% [3] - For 2024E, total revenue is projected at 31.877 billion, with a net profit of 4.458 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4% [9] Sales Performance - Q3 2024 sales volume was 2.155 million tons, down 5.1% year-on-year. The main brand and mid-to-high-end beer sales were 1.225 million tons and 0.883 million tons, respectively, both showing declines [7] - The average price per ton in Q3 was 4,125.75 yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [7] Cost and Profitability - Q3 2024 cost per ton was 2,387.97 yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year due to lower raw material prices. The gross margin improved to 42.12%, up 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin for Q3 was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [7]