中信证券：三季度业绩稳健，龙头优势尽显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][9]. Core Views - The company reported steady performance in Q3 2024, showcasing its leading position in the industry [2][5]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 46.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.799 billion yuan, up 2.35% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company’s Q3 2024 single-quarter operating revenue was 15.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.54% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.85% [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s weighted average ROE for 2024 is 6.3%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - The brokerage business saw a revenue of 7.15 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, a decrease of 8.7% year-on-year, while asset management revenue was 7.48 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year [6]. - The investment income for the first nine months of 2024 was 21.94 billion yuan, a significant increase of 23.2% year-on-year [8]. Business Segments Analysis - The investment banking segment continues to solidify its leading position, with a market share of 15.9% in IPOs and 28.2% in refinancing [7]. - The company’s investment business showed substantial improvement, with a net investment income of 21.94 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, up 23.2% year-on-year [8]. - The credit business faced some pressure, with net interest income dropping to 0.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 72% year-on-year due to increased interest expenses [8]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts revenues of 60.2 billion yuan, 63.5 billion yuan, and 67.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 20 billion yuan, 21.3 billion yuan, and 22.7 billion yuan [9]. - The expected EPS for the next three years is projected to be 1.35 yuan, 1.44 yuan, and 1.53 yuan per share [9].